It’s not magic brain science to suggest GTA 6 is going to be big, but one investment firm has suggested it’s going to be big to the tune of $7.6bn in just two months, while also securing the accolade of “largest gaming release of all time.”
That’s according to Josh Chapman, managing partner at “thesis driven investment firm” Konvoy Ventures (thanks GameSpot). Chapman shared his predictions over on LinkedIn, suggesting GTA 6 will be the “largest gaming release of all time, shattering records of copies sold and revenue generated within almost every period of time”.
More specifically, Chapman believes Grand Theft Auto 6 will generate $7.6bn USD in revenue in the first 60 days of its launch, and that it’ll recoup its development costs in under a month. It’s worth noting, however, all this is based on certain unconfirmed assumptions. Chapman’s maths assumes the base version of GTA 6 will cost $80 (neither Rockstar nor publisher Take-Two Interactive have announced a price yet, but there’s certainly precedent), and his predictions are also based on a speculative development budget of $2bn – a figure that’s long been rumoured, but never actually confirmed.
Things then veer away from the financial to the perhaps a little fanciful, with Chapman calling GTA 6 the ‘next user-generated platform’. More specifically, he predicts it’ll “have a UGC component that includes creator payouts for server hosts, mod creators, and more (mimicking the creator economics of [Fortnite] and Roblox)”, alongside “200-person lobbies [with] higher risk/reward dynamics where you can raid and steal items from players more easily.”
None of that’s particularly far-fetched, of course, but neither is it supported by any real evidence, but given Chapman notes, “In the end, we’re just gamers who can’t wait to see this title released”, there’s maybe a bit of room for some enthusiastic wishful thinking.
GTA 6 is currently expected to launch for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X/S on 26th May next year, following its not exactly unexpected delay in May. And there’s little doubt it’s going to be big; as Take-Two confirmed earlier this year, GTA 5 has now sold an astonishing 210m copies since its release 12 years ago, so it’s probably not unreasonable to assume its massively anticipated sequel will manage to do that and then some.